Demography in the Ukrainian way: Orthodox Christians expelled, Muslims brought in
The statements of government representatives about the need to bring migrants from poor countries to Ukraine lead to gloomy reflections on the purpose of what is happening.
Recently, social media haму been actively discussing the mass exodus of young people aged 18-22, as well as politicians' statements about the need to compensate for the population loss through large-scale immigration from third-world countries.
Of course, demographic problems did not arise today. If at the dawn of independence there were 52 million Ukrainians, now, according to migration service statements, there are only 28.7 million. And considering that government agencies like to embellish statistics, the actual number of people today might be catastrophically low. Why did this happen, who is to blame, and is it possible to fix the situation?
The expulsion of dissenters (those of different faiths, different opinions, different languages, etc.) began a long time ago. The slogan "suitcase – train station – Russia" was heard as early as the 90s, if anyone remembers, of course. At the same time, negative demographic trends also began not today. The decline in birth rates, an increase in mortality, and a rise in migration are what have accompanied Ukraine's history for the past 30 years, especially after the Euromaidan. Much has been said about the need to reverse these trends, but the government made decisions that were directly opposite. We already had a demographic crisis before the Russian invasion, and the war has brought Ukraine to the brink of catastrophe.
Division instead of unity
The war, it would seem, should have united our society, set aside past disputes, but the opposite happened. Politicians, officials, and opinion leaders (OLs), instead of easing internal tensions, resolving conflicts, and reducing social divisions, do the opposite – they fuel hostility, sow hatred between different social groups, and skillfully create additional fault lines and disagreements. Society was divided into the "right" and "wrong" believers, those speaking the "right" language and the enemy's language, those who went to the front and those who left the country, those who could buy off the TRC and those who could not. This list can go on for a long time.
But besides the obvious escalation of confrontations within the Ukrainian people, the group that declared itself the only right and patriotic one is pushing all dissenters to leave the country. And it is done not only through individual statements but also at the level of state policy and legislation.
Discriminatory rhetoric and policy
In August 2021, President V. Zelensky in an interview with the TV channel "Dom" stated, addressing the residents of Donbas: "If you consider yourself Russian... it's better to go to Russia." One could say that this phrase is taken out of context, and the conversation was about entirely different things. But the fact is that various political and public figures, as well as the media, interpreted it as the formula "if you disagree – go to Russia", It was in this sense that V. Zelensky's words were picked up and used in the public space.
With the start of the full-scale aggression of the RF, the rhetoric of hatred towards dissenters and, in particular, UOC believers from the mouths of politicians and OLs has increased many times over. Here is one of many examples.
On July 23, 2024, during the discussion of the bill to ban the UOC, one of the MPs stated: "Today we must talk about the fact that we must ban the Moscow church in Ukraine because Moscow priests are a branch of the Federal Security Service directly in Ukraine. And today it is our responsibility. And I want to remind you of the truth that many know because on February 24, 2022, Russian SRGs came here, to the government quarter, and took weapons from the hands of Moscow priests in the Pechersk Lavra from caches, and went to kill you. Therefore, you must understand and approach this decision responsibly. Either we finally end this, the largest SRG in Ukraine, or not."
This deputy did not bear any responsibility for slander against the largest religious denomination in Ukraine, nor for inciting inter-religious enmity, nor for public calls for reprisals against Ukrainian citizens. Moreover, the expression of such narratives has become a rule of "good tone" for Ukrainian pseudo-patriots.
IAlong the same lines act numerous so-called independent journalists who conduct supposedly objective investigative reports. Various media outlets – Slidstvo.Info, Bigus.Info, Radio Liberty, and others – deliberately shape the public perception of clergy and believers as collaborators and traitors to the state. As a result, the level of hatred from one part of society toward another is simply off the charts.
The Verkhovna Rada adopts a law on August 20, 2024, banning the UOC. To date, the State Ethnopolitics has already filed a lawsuit in court and intends to ban the activities of the Kyiv Metropolis of the UOC, as well as deprive it of all assets.
Criminal cases are being initiated against the UOC clergy on charges of treason. And although there are dozens of times more such cases against employees of SBU itself and other law enforcement agencies, they try to project them onto the entire Church, accusing millions of believers of unreliability and sympathies for the enemy.
For example, on April 21, 2023, "Interfax" published an interview with the head of the SBU V. Maliuk, in which he spoke about the exchange of the UOC clergy for Ukrainian soldiers held in Russian captivity. And this idea is already picked up by the families of prisoners of war and they call for exchanging UOC priests for prisoners of war. That is, UOC priests are no longer considered full-fledged citizens of Ukraine, they are simply material for the exchange fund. And yet there are more than 12 thousand UOC clerics, and about 6 million believers, according to DESS estimates. And all of them are treated like second-class citizens and made to understand that there is no place for them in Ukraine.
The scale of Ukraine's depletion and possible consequences
The Pressure on dissenters to leave the country is not the only factor behind the demographic catastrophe. The main one is, of course, the war. However, the slogans like "if you disagree – leave the country" also play a significant role in migration from Ukraine. And the scale of this migration is simply staggering. According to UN data, 10 million people have already left the country. And this trend continues. In November 2024, former MP and Doctor of Medical Sciences Olga Bogomolets stated that the Ukrainian nation could disappear in just a few generations.
Back in 2001, the newspaper "Zerkalo Nedeli" ("Mirror of the Week") published an article with the eloquent title "Chocolate Ukrainians with Slanted Eyes," which contained a forecast that by 2075 there would be only 10 million Ukrainians in Ukraine. But today, the war and the policy of the Ukrainian authorities make this forecast a reality in just a few decades.
Enterprises are already experiencing a shortage of labor force. According to the director of the Center for Economic Recovery Kyrylo Kryvolap, by 2030, i.e., in just six years, the labor market in Ukraine will lose 2 million people. And the total labor shortage by that year is forecasted at 4.5 million people. Where to find so many people?
Who will leave, and who will come
From Nepal, Bangladesh, and other poorest countries in the world, according to former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Quote: “There won’t be anything good for us in terms of population. We are in a negative trend. It was already the worst in Europe even before the war. Therefore, we may have to open the country for migration. Bangladesh, Nepal, India, the Philippines, Vietnam – they will gladly come.” The same opinion is shared by Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies, and many other politicians and officials.
Certainly, there are those who disagree. For example, MP from the “Servant of the People” party and Chair of the Rada’s Finance Committee Dmytro Hetmantsev responded to Kuleba: “People with a different culture, language, religion, and, let’s be honest, far from always willing to work, will never solve Ukraine’s demographic problems. Or they might solve them in a way we’d better not wish for.” In his opinion, the focus should be “on lasting peace, recovery, and, as a result, the return of our people home”.
But the current Ukrainian authorities are doing the exact opposite.
There is no reason to believe that politicians like Dmytro Hetmantsev are doing anything to turn their words into action. On the contrary, they seem to be doing everything possible to ensure that more and more people are leaving Ukraine. What matters is not only the number of migrants but also who exactly is leaving the country. While we don’t have precise statistics, some conclusions can be drawn based on general trends.
It is the more well-off who are leaving, those who can afford to emigrate and live abroad. Those who can pay for an illegal border crossing (if needed). The scale of such crossings is difficult to measure accurately, but claims on social media suggest that the numbers are significant. And since these migrants are not included in official statistics, the actual number of people leaving the country may be even higher than reported.
Children and teenagers are also leaving. Ukrainian schools have a minimal number of students. Educated and highly qualified professionals are leaving as well — those with a good chance of finding quality jobs abroad. This is especially true for employees of IT companies. Many of these companies are relocating abroad entirely, taking advantage of "digital nomad" visas offered by several countries.
And, as already mentioned, UOC believers are being pushed out of the country.
But let’s ask ourselves: which religious community’s members are the most law-abiding citizens of their country? Again, there are no official statistics on this. However, the fact that believers of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church have, throughout the entire history of independent Ukraine, never seized a single church and have not responded to violence with violence already speaks volumes. It turns out that the Ukrainian authorities are trying to push out some of the most tolerant and law-abiding citizens.
So, who will come to take their place if the ideas of Dmytro Kuleba and others are implemented? The former minister mentioned Bangladesh, Nepal, India, the Philippines, and Vietnam as potential sources of migrants for Ukraine. These are some of the poorest countries in the world. But even from these nations, only the poorest, least educated, and, as a result, most criminalized segments of the population are likely to come to Ukraine.
In his speech at the UN on September 23, Donald Trump stated that the majority of criminals in European prisons are foreigners: “In Austria, the number was 53 per cent of the people in prisons were from places that weren't from where they are now. In Greece, the number was 54 per cent. In Switzerland, beautiful Switzerland, 72 per cent of the people in prisons are from outside of Switzerland.”
It is unlikely that the situation would be any different in Ukraine. And what’s even more important is that these migrants will come from entirely different cultural and religious backgrounds.
In the not-so-distant future, Islam could very well become the dominant religion in Ukraine, while Christians could become a tolerated, or even persecuted, minority. In other words, all the current "patriots" shouting "suitcase – train station" at UOC churches may end up with neighbors who, instead, send them to the train station.
Media preparation
Media preparation for this is already underway. The media are starting to create a polished and appealing image of such migrants. One example is the article titled "The Nigerian Woman Who Fell in Love with Ukraine and Settled in Kyiv: The Story of Oni Uzomi Asompti."
We have nothing negative to say about this particular woman, but the key message of the article is clear: we should not fear migrants from the poorest countries. Some comments under the article reflect this sentiment, saying things like, “A Nigerian Ukrainian — how sweet, how patriotic.” However, another portion of the audience posted sharply negative responses: “The process has started! Heroization of foreigners is underway! Waiting for reports about wonderful Bangladeshi seamstresses, Palestinian cheesemakers, and Iranian weavers!” and “Yes, yes — and then come ethnic crime, drug trafficking, and all the rest of the delights,” and so on.
In any case, mass migration into Ukraine from third-world countries will inevitably cause social polarization and a rise in racist sentiments, which could escalate into violent clashes and riots, as has already happened in other countries.
Conclusion
What’s most surprising is that Ukrainian authorities are doing everything they can to drive out law-abiding, educated, and successful Ukrainians, while at the same time encouraging the arrival of poor and marginalized Nigerians, Nepalese, and Bangladeshis. Whether this is being done intentionally or out of ignorance is no longer as important — the fact is that it's happening. Can this be stopped?
In theory – yes. It’s essential to ensure that all Ukrainians, regardless of political views, religion, language, and so on, feel not like second-class citizens, but like full and respected members of society. Of course, this alone is not enough. But without it, Ukraine is almost certainly heading toward the worst-case scenario in terms of its demographic future.
