Letters by generals to President: why too late in France but not in Ukraine

French generals, retired and active, military and police, have written to President E. Macron the third letter with a warning about the impending racial-civil war and the demand to restore order. The reason is the dominance of migrants and the Islamic threat. The political authorities reacted negatively to these letters in general. But even if the authorities in France seriously undertake action to restore order in the country, they will no longer be able to prevent the catastrophe mentioned in the "generals" letters. Why is this so, and what lesson can Ukraine learn from all this? We’ll try to figure it out.

Three letters by generals

On April 21, 2021, retired gendarmerie officer Jean-Pierre Fabre-Bernadac published a letter on the online platform for military personnel Place Armes, the essence of which boils down to three main messages:

• there are a lot of migrants in France, and they do not recognize French laws;
• the inaction of the authorities will lead to civil war;
• the generals are ready to support anyone who brings order to France.

This letter was signed by 20 retired generals and more than 1,000 officers of the army, police and gendarmerie. They drew the attention of the President of France, the French authorities and society to the fact that Islamism in France has gained such strength that there are already areas “where the laws of the republic do not apply”, and moreover, there are “territories where dogmas are spreading that contradict our Constitution". Here, obviously, they mean Sharia law, which contradicts the constitutional foundations of France as a secular state.

According to the military, the authorities oppose this expansion only with a policy of "flirtation and guilty silence". This can only lead to the fact that social tension along the line "Muslim migrants – native French" will soon reach its climax, which will be followed by a civil war with thousands of victims, and President E. Macron will bear responsibility for this.

Social tension along the line "Muslim migrants – native French" will soon reach its climax, which will be followed by a civil war with thousands of victims.

At the end of the letter, its authors called on the French authorities to take decisive action to restore order in the country, otherwise some “activists” will do it: “If nothing is done, apathy will inexorably spread in society, which will ultimately lead to an explosion and the intervention of our active comrades in the risky mission of protecting our civilizational values and protecting our compatriots in the country.”

The generals did not specify what kind of active comrades they are, and how ready they are to take the situation into their own hands but declared that they are ready to serve "anyone who will defend the interests of the French nation".

In response, Macron's government compared the retired generals' performance to a failed coup attempt by French generals in Algeria against President Charles de Gaulle in 1961 and imposed disciplinary sanctions on 18 of the 20 signatories. And most political scientists relate this letter to the presidential elections to be held in France in April 2022.

On May 9, 2021, the same agency Valeurs Actuelles published a second letter with similar content, which received over 150 thousand votes in just one day. True, this second letter was anonymous, but it was claimed that its authors were active officers, including those who served in Afghanistan, Mali and the Central African Republic and also participated in anti-terrorist operations in France itself.

The tone of the second letter was even stronger than of the first one. The authors argued that in France "a civil war is already brewing".

“We see violence in our cities and villages, we see that hatred of France and its history is becoming the norm,” the authors write and urge, “Take action! It is about the survival of our country and yours. If a civil war breaks out, the military will maintain order in their own land ... A civil war is brewing in France, and you know that very well."

The third letter to President E. Macron was published by Valeurs Actuelles on May 14, 2021. It was signed by more than 90 retired police officers who supported their colleagues who wrote the first two letters and declared the failure of the security situation in the country. They confirmed that in entire regions of France "aggressive minorities" are challenging the power of the state and called on the country's authorities to correct "an extremely serious situation in terms of security and public order" and take measures to "reconquer the country".

At the same time, the retired police said that it was the police, and not the military, who should be engaged in restoring order "to avoid war".

The reaction of the authorities and society

The government's reaction to the generals' letters was predictably negative. French Prime Minister Jean Castex called the letters "an initiative directed against all our republican principles, the honour and duty of the army". The chief of staff of the French Armed Forces, General François Lecointre, said that the authors would be punished. However, sanctions against them will range from forced full retirement to disciplinary action. “Each of these generals will appear before the Supreme Military Council. At the end of this procedure, the President of the republic will sign a decree on their exclusion,” Lecointre said and threatened the generals with the loss of salaries and privileges, as well as the expulsion of senior officers from the reserve. Defence Secretary Florence Parley also said: “This is unacceptable. Certainly, there will be consequences."

All three letters supported the right-wing political forces and categorically condemned the political forces of the left. Marine Le Pen, leader of the conservative National Assembly, expressed solidarity with the writers of the letters and urged her supporters to follow her example: "I invite you to join us in the battle for France."

As for the reaction of the French society, it generally supported the call for the authorities to restore order in the country. The content of the letters aroused special sympathy among the residents of towns and villages in France. The news channel La Chaîne Info published the results of a poll, according to which 58% of French people supported the letter, and 42% opposed it. In addition, 64% of respondents opposed the punishment of retired military personnel who wrote the first letter, 74% were against sanctions against the active military, the authors of the second letter, 73% agree that the country is falling apart, 86% confirm the existence of territories where French laws do not apply, 84% say that violence in France is growing every day. And, probably, the most shocking figure was the opinion of 49% of the survey participants who believe that the army should independently, without the consent of the authorities, start an operation to restore order.

86% confirm the existence of territories where French laws do not apply, 84% say that violence in France is growing every day.

A definite response to the letter of the French generals and officers can also be considered the analytical note entitled "Demographics, the key to preserving our social model", which was published on May 16, 2021, by the High Commissioner for Planning François Bayrou. In it, he notes a steady decline in the birth rate over the past six years.

In 2020, the overall birth rate was 1.83 children per woman, well below the threshold population of 2.1 children per woman. This endangers not only the demographic situation but also the pension and economic systems, as well as the social security system. In other words, there will be an increasing number of the unemployed per worker, which will lead not only to social tension in society but also to the inaccessibility of social protection for broad strata of the population. F. Bayrou proposes to adopt the so-called "National Pact on Demography", in which he proposes two solutions to solve the demographic problem – "to have more children" and "to welcome people from other countries", that is, to stimulate the birth of children and attract migrants from other countries.

But, firstly, as practice shows, it is mainly representatives of the Muslim migrant diaspora, where the birth rate is at a high level and without government incentives, who respond to the calls proposed by the government. And secondly, the attraction of migrants means an even greater increase in this diaspora and, as a result, an increase in the problems that were mentioned in the letter by the French generals. In other words, the authorities plan not to fight against "Islamization" in France but rather to contribute to its development.

To be fair, it should be noted that in December 2020, the French government initiated a draft law to protect the value of a secular state. It assumes, in particular:

• to step up the fight against online hate speech;
• to prohibit clandestine and semi-clandestine schools that teach radical versions of Islam;
• to prohibit the issuance of residence permits to polygamists;
• to tighten the rules of state support for Islamic organizations;
• to extend the ban on the wearing of religious clothing.

Despite the fact that this bill was strongly criticized by Turkish President R. Erdogan, who called it discriminatory towards Muslims, it does not at all correspond to the scale of the problems it is intended to solve.

What's happening in France

No matter how much the critics dislike the "generals' letters", they cannot but agree that the situation in French society described in the letters is a reality that cannot be avoided. Rashida Dati, mayor of the 7th Arrondissement of Paris and, incidentally, an Arab by birth, said in a comment to France Info radio: “What is written in this letter is reality. When you have a country suffering from urban guerrilla warfare, when you have a constant and high terrorist threat, when you have ever more egregious and blatant inequality ... we cannot say that the country is doing well."

On October 6, 2020, the whole world was excited by the news that a Chechen emigrant beheaded the school teacher Samuel Paty in a suburb of Paris for showing cartoons of the founder of Islam in a lesson. But few people pay attention to the fact that almost every day in France, crimes that more resemble military operations than ordinary crimes are committed. And these crimes are committed mainly by migrants. They attack police officers, smash shops, set cars on fire, and so on. After the murder of Samuel Paty, French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said: “France is at war. The question is not whether there will be another attack. The question is when it will happen." At that time, the continuation of high-profile crimes was not long in coming, and on October 29, 2020, a 21-year-old immigrant from Tunisia, Brahim Aouissaoui, stabbed three people in Nice.

It is very difficult to assess the true scale of the crimes of migrants in France since it is legally (!) forbidden to publish statistics on the nationality of criminals there.

In France, one Christian temple is destroyed every two weeks and one mosque is erected.

In parallel with the growing crime on the part of migrants, the number of Christian churches, which are destroyed by the French themselves, is also growing. According to the study by Edouard de Lamaze, president of the Observatoire du patrimoine Religieux in Paris, one Christian temple is destroyed and one mosque is erected in France every two weeks. Fires are one of the main reasons for the destruction of churches, two-thirds of which are associated with deliberate arson.

In addition, every day, on average, more than two Christian churches are attacked, two-thirds of these offences are related to theft and one to desecration.

Formally, these two processes – the growth of migrant crime and the demolition of Christian churches – are not directly interrelated, but in fact, they are two sides of the same coin. Those French (and generally European) politicians who allowed a huge number of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East to come to France believed that these people would assimilate in France, accept its laws, culture, values and way of life. But everything happens exactly the opposite: migrants themselves begin to remake the country where they came, for themselves, with their own laws, traditions and religion.

At the same time, France maintains these people who destroy it mentally. According to Eurostat estimates, now there are more than 8 million migrants in France, which is about 12% of the population. At the same time, according to a study conducted by the French prosecutor Charles Prats, migrants are recipients of 43% of family and housing allowances, as well as half of the pensions.

When assessing the prospects for changing the demographic situation in France, one should pay attention not so much to the number of migrants or their percentage with the local population but rather to the age and the total fertility rate, which is the main indicator of the dynamics of population growth or decline. Today in France, 30% of the population under the age of 20 is Muslim. Moreover, in large cities: Marseille, Nice, Paris and others, this figure is more than 45% (!). Do not forget that in the struggle for power in the country, not through elections but through Maidans and mass protests, the key is precisely the population of large cities. To seize power in France or another European country with a similar demographic situation, Muslim migrants do not even need to wait until they make up most of the population of the entire country. It is enough to have a high percentage of the active population in large cities, which will be achieved soon, and in many places is already a reality. Back in the fall of 2020, French Ambassador to Sweden Etienne de Gonneville said that France is a Muslim country.

Today in France, 30% of the population under the age of 20 is Muslim. Moreover, in large cities: Marseille, Nice, Paris and others, this figure is more than 45% (!).

As for the total fertility rate in France, it is 1.8 children per woman of fertile age for the French and 8.1 for Muslim migrants. And this leaves no chance for France to preserve its original French identity.

Why it is too late in France

So, the threat of France becoming an arena of unequal confrontation between Muslim migrants and native French people is obvious. This is discussed both in the "generals" letters and in a variety of analytical materials. But what can be opposed to this threat? We have already mentioned above the recently adopted law in France on the protection of the value of a secular state. The measures that it provides are reminiscent of a situation when a powerful fire is proposed to be extinguished with children's water pistols. French generals in their letters propose to take drastic measures, but what exactly?

“Act! It goes about the survival of our and your country,” one of the letters reads. How to proceed? What should be done to put things in order? To harshly prosecute those responsible for each specific crime? But this very often becomes impossible since the mentality of Muslim migrants implies that a relative, even one who has committed a crime, cannot be surrendered to outsiders for punishment. There are a lot of cases when the crowd recaptures the criminal from the police. And if the police still manage to detain him, he immediately writes a statement that he has become a victim of racial and religious discrimination, and the police have big problems with this.

But that's not the point. Even if it is possible to punish everyone who breaks the law, the transformation of France into a Muslim country is inevitable due to the already mentioned demography. If in the majority of French families one child is born, and in Muslim families – eight, then no police measures can solve this problem. Here, a whole range of measures is needed to stimulate the birth rate of indigenous Frenchmen, on the one hand, and to severely expel from the country all migrants who are staying there illegally, on the other hand. French society is not ready for either the first or the second. In addition, it is a very big mistake to believe that economic stimulation can lead to an increase in the birth rate on the required scale.

By and large, only two factors affect birth rates: civilization and religious consciousness. The countries with the highest fertility rates are African countries living according to their traditional ways: Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger. On the other hand, the lowest fertility rate is in the most civilized and technologically advanced countries: Germany, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc. It would be foolish to call for the abandonment of the benefits of civilization to increase the birth rate, therefore the main but not the only way to increase the birth rate is to educate the religious consciousness of the citizens of their country. France is doing the opposite.

Let's pay attention to the following factors:

• a huge number of migrants in the country;
• the high birth rate among migrants and low birth rate among native French people;
• de-Christianization of the indigenous population.

These factors allow us to conclude that even those radical measures called for by generals and officers in their letters will no longer save France. Even if the authorities do their best to enhance religious consciousness with the French, it will many decades for this consciousness to take root in the ethnic French. During this period, the Muslim community of France will grow so much that it will become dominant in this country. In other words, the French simply do not have time, this European country (and is it the only one?) is doomed to become a Muslim state.

Why Ukraine still has a chance

Today, more than a million Muslims live in Ukraine, which is approximately 3% of the population. At the same time, about half of the Muslim community are Crimean Tatars. The rest of the ethnic groups are the Volga Tatars, Azerbaijanis, Meskhetian Turks, Chechens, Dagestanis, Uzbeks, as well as Muslims of Slavic origin. There are not so many immigrants from the countries of North Africa and the Middle East in Ukraine. That is, in Ukraine reside those ethnic groups of Muslims who have lived here historically and with whom we have a long, and sometimes even centuries-old, experience of coexistence. The birth rate in these ethnic groups is, of course, higher than among Ukrainians but not so much that the percentage with the Slavic population will change as quickly as in France or in other European countries. In other words, if Ukraine does not open wide the doors to migrants, then we still have that very time to increase our own birth rate, which France no longer has.

To increase the birth rate in Ukraine, it is necessary to take a whole range of measures of an economic, social and other nature. What specific measures our country can and should take is the subject of a separate article. However, in any case, the first place among them will be the churching of people's consciousness, a change in the system of values, and a return to our Orthodox faith.